A Brief History Of Android - Part 2: Just Desserts

SDK emulator for Android 1.0

The beta version of Android saw the light of day at the beginning of November 2007, followed a week later by a software development kit (SDK), marking the first faltering steps of the fledgling OS out into the world of smartphones. The lack of dedicated hardware on which to run the OS meant that the release was only suited to hardware manufacturers and software developers, ensuring a somewhat lackluster reception in the media and most everywhere else.

But it was a significant beginning nonetheless, albeit following the release of Apple's first proper smartphone effort, the predictably-named iPhone with its stripped-down version of the Mac's OS X. Handset manufacturers took an immediate interest in the early Android effort, especially given that the price was right. It's hard to improve on “free”. However, although significant progress was being made behind the scenes, Android remained an obscure sideshow to the main event; the pent-up demand for the much-hyped iPhone resulting in it becoming an immediate media and consumer success.

Things weren't looking at all rosy for Google's new baby.

And so it remained into the new year, with the iPhone gaining traction all the while and Microsoft, RIM and Nokia continuing to profit from their own endeavors until in October 2008, the very first Android-specific handset was launched.

Known as the HTC Dream to its manufacturer, the world better remembers it as the G1 and it sold over a million units in its first six months on the market at the princely sum of US$400 off contract. And while that number of sales seems quaintly insubstantial now, it was pretty impressive considering the iPhone managed a little under 1.5 million in its first six months on sale.

Android was now a contender but certainly not a guaranteed stayer - over at Cupertino, the second iteration of the iPhone, the 3G, had already been launched and was selling like hotcakes. At the corporate HQs of Microsoft, RIM and Nokia, denial was the common theme. Dismissive public comments about the upstarts were de rigeur but behind the scenes, management had begun to pay a little more attention. At Apple HQ, buoyed by the outstanding success of the iPhone, Steve Jobs and his team weren't feeling remotely threatened by Android, but they weren't resting on their laurels either.

The battle was heating up.

The sweet taste of success

It's doubtful that this will come as any surprise, but one of Android's little eccentricities has been that since AndroidOS version 1.5, its third release, each new 'point' release has been code-named after a sweet dessert. For simplicity's sake, a list of the versions follows, and you'll forgive me, I'm sure, for including it for the less Android-savvy:

Android ver0 (beta - no codename but let's call it "Apple Pie" for giggles)
Android ver1.0 (first public release - no codename - maybe "Brandy Snap"?)
Android ver1.5 (update release - "Cupcake")
Android ver1.6 (update release - "Donut")
Android ver2.0 (major update release - "Eclair")
Android ver2.2 (update release - "Froyo" for frozen yoghurt)
Android ver2.3 (update release - "Gingerbread")
Android ver3.0 (tablet-only release - "Honeycomb")
Android ver4.0 (major release for both tablets and phones - "Ice Cream Sandwich")

Nexus S running Eclair

But we're getting a little ahead of our story.

Back in the dim past of 2008, Android's share of the smartphone market was a tiny <1%, a dust speck in comparison to the titans of the time, Nokia, RIM and Microsoft. Even relative newcomer to the bun fight, Apple, seemed to be eating Android's lunch, but the proof of the pudding was in the eating (pardon the sudden onslaught of food-related metaphors there), and the static numbers were misleading.

What was happening, if you cared to look, was a forming trend. Android's market penetration was beginning to indicate momentum and it continued to increase through 2008 and 2009. In fact, even the meagre 2% Gartner reported in October 2009 was enough for them to predict that Android would take the number 2 spot in global market share with 14% by 2012.

How right they were in sentiment – how wrong they were in detail. Android hit number 2 in 2010, two years earlier than Gartner's prediction and their numbers were well short of the percentage actually achieved, a healthy 17.7%.

For 2009, Gartner reported the following Q4 smartphone OS share:

Nokia (Symbian) - 46.9%
RIM (BBOS) - 19.9%
Apple (iPhoneOS/iOS) - 14.4%
Microsoft - 8.7%
Android - 3.9%

By September 2010, Gartner reported the following smartphone Q2 OS share:

Nokia (Symbian) - 40.0%
Android - 17.7%
RIM - 17.5%
Apple (iPhoneOS/iOS) - 15.4%
Microsoft - 4.7%

By any measure, Android's growth was astounding. As the numbers increased almost logarithmically, handset makers the world over, with the notable exceptions of Nokia, Research in Motion and Apple, scrambled to take a piece of the Android pie in a frenzy of handset releases never before seen. And their proliferation of new models and the availability of thousands of downloadable apps gave Android's momentum an even bigger push – so much so that as I type this, it has been announced that Android now pwns 56% of the US smartphone market. An astonishing performance. Especially as the US is the spiritual home of Cupertino's favoured fruity smartphone goodness and Apple's share is a distant 28%.

You read that right folks. There are twice as many Android-running smartphones sold each day in the US as there are iPhones. Contrast that with the tiny steps Android was making in the last month or two of 2008, when Apple had more than a year's head start in the market place and what seemed to be unstoppable momentum itself.

Galaxy Nexus with latest and greatest Ice Cream Sandwich. 

Sweeet.

Not that Apple has done badly. After all, it has 28% of the US market and people still line up around the block in any weather to be among the first to own the latest and greatest iPhone released. It's surely a testament to Apple's marketing prowess that it hasn't been battered by Android's stunning growth and it continues to hold its market share so well.

But it begs the question as to where Apple's finest would be today were it not for Android. Because it's tempting to think that basically every second smartphone sold that currently ends up as an Android purchase, could very likely have been another iPhone one. It becomes clearer in that light why Jobs professed his hatred for Google and its free OS. Without them, Apple would likely have the same market dominance in smartphones as it has in personal music players.

It's interesting to know though, that iPod sales continue to drop, (down 27% year on year as reported in Apple's latest filing), as they have for the past four years. No doubt that's in part because the iPod equipped iPhone renders the standalone player redundant for most Apple fans. But it also hints at something else.

It doesn't matter who occupies the top of the heap at any moment; there's nothing surer than the reality that they won't be there forever. Right now it's easy to be wise and say that until the end of 2012, Android's spectacular growth will continue and its OS competitors will suffer – some more than others.

But Microsoft and Nokia will be bringing their double act to the market very soon and its effects can only be guessed at. RIM has been stuttering of late, but has held its ground against the onslaught better than many, including myself, would have predicted.

Apple's iPhone continues its unabated popularity among the Apple faithful and continues to win converts, despite the increasingly litigious way it approaches its marketing. So will Android really continue its rise and rise?

It seems so... In Part 3 we'll take a peek at tablets, Ice Cream Sandwiches and fragments of the imagination. Catch you then...