Wednesday, 7 December 2011

Tablet wars heat up: Fire to grab big market share...

Canaccord Genuity analyst Walkley predicts Amazon's tablet share will grab 15.3% from a standing start in Q4 of 2011, an absolutely stunning result for the company in getting its trojan horse loss-leader in the hands of their clients.


Amazon expects to make up any short term loss on the hardware from the increased sales it'll achieve through use of the device. And given the popularity of the Fire already, it looks to be a dead cert that they're right.


In what is increasingly seen as a blow to Apple's quest for world domination in the tablet sector, the iPad maker's share of the pie continues to shrink, even more rapidly now that the Fire has inflamed the public's imagination (forgive the bad pun), every Android tablet sale being potentially a lost iPad one.



The trend continues...
Walkley's Q3 vs Q4 predictions also contain the following morsels - and remember this is a single quarter:
Amazon will grow from 0% to 15.3%
Samsung will grow from 10.0% to 11%
Asus will grow from 4.0% to 4.9%
HTC will grow from 2.7% to 2.9%
And in the negative growth column, we have:
iPad plummeting from 74.0% to 53.2%
RIM's effort halving from 1.3% to 0.6%

Ouch... nobody else is likely to exceed 1% market share.



Source: Canaccord Genuity

5 comments:

  1. Apple could only lose share since they started at basically 100%. Their flurry of tablet-based litigation is surely a sign of their concern at how things are progressing. They seem to have expected to maintain market dominance, despite not offering products at different price points - predictable result!

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  2. Apple's track record has been quite impressive, thanks in large part to the brand loyalty they've amassed, so there's an expectation that market dominance is a given. The success of the iPod has imparted a culture within the company and among the fanbase that they can repeat that performance each time they step up to the plate.

    You have to admire that confidence in a way. But there's a thin line between confidence and arrogance. Now that Apple has this massive capitalisation based primarily on the huge profit margins it consistently achieves, it has to keep that performance up. In effect, everything has to be a spectacular success.

    So you can understand why they'll use every tool at their disposal to deliver. Low price points though, while arresting market share, will undermine that profitability so can never be the solution for Apple.

    Right now, the Kindle Fire is only available in the US yet the numbers sold are spectacular. One can only imagine how well Amazon will do when they roll out to other markets.

    Fire has the potential to be a genuine game changer in the tablet market. Watch this space!

    Cheers,
    R2

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  3. I'm surprised HTC is apparently doing so much better than Motorola, since Moto has the tablet equivalent of a Nexus. HTC has the Flyer, which until recently was running Gingerbread, and the Jetstream, which has a laughable price. Granted, the Xoom did itself no favors. Good for Asus and Sammy, hopefully their marketshare increases. I can't think of an LG tablet though,so the smaller numbers seem off to me...

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  4. @daniel.gulyas02

    To be frank, the numbers are predictions, so it'd be no surprise if they are off by some factor. Particularly the lower numbers which are probably smaller than the margin of error in any research worth its salt.

    Motorola had made a few missteps recently, and need to up their game across all devices. Soon.

    LG have an 8.9" tablet, (Optimus branded I believe) which was launched earlier this year although not marketed much, it appears. I suspect their focus is Asia, primarily their home country Korea, not the US and Europe.

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  5. Good point: I forgot about margin of error. Especially when factoring in the prediction factor, I doubt this will be terribly accurate by the end of the quarter.

    I will say that Motorola still has their believers in the US market, especially on Verizon. They're probably the best selling Android OEM on my carrier, although HTC has done nicely for themselves. Again, the US market tends to be a bit of an oddball.

    I'm also a bit biased, being American, so I really don't know the global market as well. LG does apparently have a tablet on T-Mobile, but carrier branded tablets aren't doing terribly well (for good reason, it's much cheaper and more efficient to just tether it to your phone).

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